Wednesday, July 19, 2006

What do Alex Gordon and Mark Redman have in Common?

STATISTICS!!!

Today's Topics:
1. Reasons to leave Gordon in AA.
2. Reasons to keep Mark Redman this year and next year and the year after that.

Topic 2 first then!

Mark Redman is making 4.5 million dollars this year. 4.5 million dollars and he's 32 yrs old. Randy Johnson is making just under 16 million and is 43. Randy Johnson has a 3006 ERA of 5.04. Mark Redman has an ERA of 5.02 (as of 7/19).

Two points to be made here: 1) you NEVER know what you'll get with a free agent pitcher, which is why I believe you can buy hitting but not pitching (develop it in the minors and you'll more likely know what you'll get from him and it's CHEAPER, especially if you have little money to spend (ROYALS!)) and 2) free agent pitching has gotten RIDICULOUSLY expensive; keeping the Royals from being able to BUY mid-to-top of the line pitching.

Keep Mark b/c he won't garner HUGE numbers, probably the couple year, 10 million range, he's affordable for 5 million a year. It doesn't look like his numbers are very good, except that even though he doesn't strike people out, he's been getting people out. Also, in April, Mark had a 7.82 ERA and in May he had an ERA of 6.35... but he had just come back from surgery. His SO:BB ratio was practically identical showing a lack of command, bad decisions by the catcher, etc., but in June he posted a 3.74 ERA with 5 wins and a SO:BB ratio of 8:14 (still not very good).

Today Mark pitched 7 innings, gave up 1 run, struck out 9 and walked none. He's had more quality starts then any pitcher and he's proven. He CAN get big league outs. Who else on our team is a quality starter? Jimmy Gobble hasn't proven it yet, Greinke has not either. Without Hochevar signed and no JP Howell, our rotation next year looks bleak... UNLESS you resign Mark Redman. With him you get proven quality, a veteran player/teacher, and a above average 3, 4, 5 spot in the rotation.

Gordon:
Even though I want Teahen traded (for pitching) or moved to 1B, the Royals are making a smart move in holding back Gordon. Plus, until Mark has proven himself over the long haul, you can't get much for him in a trade (though you may want to try since his arm is apparently not 100%, so when will he finally break?)

Gordon though, as provided by the Wichita Eagle (kansas.com), shows that even though Gordon has hit over .300, has 49 BB, 50 RBI, 17 SB, and 13 HR, he has hit a measely .143 with bases loaded, .231 with runners in scoring position, and .242 w/runners in scoring and 2 outs. I'd say bring him up to AAA once all of his numbers round out to the player we all think he can be. Adhere to the not rushing prospects rule; the Royals can't save their season this year, and probably not next year unless guys have careers years, major trades occur, or major free agent signings happen. We have an above average fielding Mark Teahen at 3rd, or even Tony Graffinino, so there is TRULY no rush for Gordon.

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